Will ballot initiatives sway turnout?

Published 12:13 am Monday, September 19, 2011

JACKSON (AP) — Most political observers have little doubt three ballot initiatives to amend the Mississippi Constitution will pass on Nov. 8, but there’s debate over whether they will drive higher voter turnout or give the GOP an advantage.

With elections drawing near, the initiatives don’t appear to have drawn the public fervor many expected a year or more ago during petition drives to get them on the ballot.

With court challenges cleared — at least for now — over two of the initiatives, voters will decide:

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4 Personhood: Whether to define life as beginning at conception

4 Eminent domain: Whether to prevent government from taking someone’s private property and giving it to another for development

4 Voter ID: Whether to require a person to submit a government-issued photo ID to vote

“I think these will be a conservative get-out-the-vote (driver),” said Tim Saler, state Republican Party director. “Sure, I think they’ll help (Republicans) for that reason. They will draw out conservative voters who care about these issues but maybe are not passionate about a particular candidate.”

Rickey Cole, state Democratic Party director, disagrees.

“It’s above my paygrade to try to figure out what makes a Republican think or vote,” Cole said. “But I believe there are going to be Republicans and Democrats voting yes and no on all three initiatives, and I don’t see any of them as being concretely partisan. The party hasn’t taken a position on any of the initiatives, and I don’t think turnout is going to be driven by any one factor.”

The two gubernatorial candidates, Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant and Democratic Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, have both said they support the initiatives, or at least letting voters decide them. Most candidates statewide have taken similar stances. Bryant is named as co-chair of the group pushing the personhood amendment. DuPree has spoken strongly in favor of the eminent domain measure.

Public hearings on the initiatives hosted this summer by the secretary of state drew relatively sparse crowds and relatively tame debate, given the emotional response the issues have brought in the past in Mississippi and nationwide.

“I think in some elections past these could have really stirred things up,” said Marty Wiseman, director of the Stennis Institute of Government. “When you think back to the state flag vote and other amendments you’ve had a large cadre of people passionately supporting or fighting them. These have kind of lightly drifted on in. That’s not saying there aren’t those strong supporters — I’ve seen some pro definition of life amendment signs. But unless a candidate himself really picks up the mantle one way or the other, I don’t see it affecting anything greatly one way or the other.”