River to hit flood stage

By Vershal Hogan (Contact) | The Natchez Democrat

Published Tuesday, May 5, 2009

VIDALIA — Flood-stage water levels are projected for the Mississippi River by this time next week.

The National Weather Service issued a flood warning Monday for the Mississippi River at the Natchez-Vidalia pass, projecting that the river will reach 49.5 feet by the morning of May 12.

Flood stage locally is 48 feet above gauge zero, which at the Natchez location is set at 17.28 feet above sea level.

The river is expected to stand at 44.2 feet this morning, rise to 44.8 Wednesday, 45.5 Thursday, 46.6 Friday, 47.2 by Saturday and continue that climb until it reaches the 49.5 crest.

The heavy storm that came through the area and to the north Sunday contributed to the forecast, NWS Meteorologist Ed Tarver said.

But Sunday’s storms alone will not contribute to the rise in the river, and NWS Senior Forecaster Ed Agre said two more waves of rainfall are coming to the north.

The NWS has several weather models, and where the rain falls could determine how much of an effect it has on the river levels.

“One model has the big bulls eye of the next rain being three to seven inches (of rain) around Memphis, which will certainly help the river go up,” Agre said.

Another model shows a three-inch dump of rain around Oxford during the same time period, between Thursday and Sunday. A third model shows rainfall north of Memphis, Agre said.

That model would probably be best for the area, he said.

“As long as that stays north you will be better off as far as heavy rain goes,” Agre said.