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Rising river expected to top flood stage Monday
Published Saturday, March 22, 2008
VIDALIA — The Mississippi River is expected to rise above flood stage sometime during the day Monday.
Flood stage at the Natchez-Vidalia pass of the river is 48 feet above gauge zero, and the river is expected to rise today to 45.9 feet.
At 47 feet, water will begin to enter the former Belwood Golf Course and Carthage Point Road in southern Adams County.
When the river reaches flood stage, Carthage Point Road will become impassible.
Photo by Marcus Frazier
Concordia Parish resident Ruby Manchester drives over a water-covered road as she leaves her home on the Old River. The road has flooded due to rising Mississippi River levels.
By Monday, the U.S. Corps of Engineers plans to go into a phase I flood fight, Corps Public Information Officer Frank Whorley said.
“That means we will begin to patrol up and down the levees and provide assistance to the levee boards as we see they need it,” Whorley said.
The Concordia Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness will also begin levee patrols when the river reaches its flood stage, Director Morris White said earlier this week.
If all goes as predicted, the river will continue to rise in increments of less than a foot a day until it reaches its crest height during the morning of April 6, when National Weather Service models predict it will reach a height of 53.5 feet.
“The thing about river floods is that they don’t happen really fast,” Whorley said. “They’re not like a hurricane, which comes in one day and is gone the next.”
At 53.5 feet, the river will be at its highest since 1997, NWS Hydrologist Marty Pope said.
The National Weather Service predictions are determined by several factors.
“Basically, we look at what rainfall has fallen on the ground in our area,” Pope said. “What makes it interesting for the Mississippi River is that you are looking at everything that is coming down the upper Mississippi River leg and the Ohio River where they come together at Cairo, Ill.”
The weather service also takes into consideration how much water the corps of engineers and the Tennessee Valley Authority are releasing from the dams they maintain.
The only problem with river level forecasts is their temporal nature, Pope said.
“We only have 24 hours of rainfall forecast in those models,” he said. “Something that may happen two or four days in the future is not in there.”
Comments
Posted by justthefactsman (anonymous) on March 21, 2008 at 11:21 p.m. (Suggest removal)
OUch. I think if I owned property on the Vidalia Riverfront right now, I would be sweating. I rode 4-wheelers on the Mat Field when I was a teen and remember the Mat Field flooding. It has gotten that high in the past. Hope all goes well, but with all the flooding up north right now, all that water has to go somewhere. Rain Rain Go away.
Posted by gemccull (Gary McCullars) on March 21, 2008 at 11:25 p.m. (Suggest removal)
justthefactsman, what was the river level when it was on the mat field?
Posted by justthefactsman (anonymous) on March 21, 2008 at 11:54 p.m. (Suggest removal)
If I remember correctly it was over 48 feet. It was in the lower to middle 1990's. I'll do some research and get back to you on exacts. Now granted this was at the south end of the mat field. But I do remember. Around 48+ft water enters the woods and small field on the north end of Spur Levee. I have a feeling that water from this flooding up north will push our levels up high. I hope not to the point where flooding on the north end of the mat field occurs. I haven't been over there in the last couple of days, but from what I am seeing on the riverguages website levels are rising. Plus I am no EXPERT, just an ole river rat.
Posted by Swapmeet (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 12:33 a.m. (Suggest removal)
What is the mat field? I've only lived in Natchez for two years.
Posted by rushinghjr (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 1:03 a.m. (Suggest removal)
(Swap) I was born and reared in Natchez. The subject mat field(s) were located below the old bridge crossing the river on both sides of the bridge, that is to the right and left. The mats were used as a erosion and retention structures in the flooding areas. I am not an "expert' in the mat structures and all of its uses. Also, as I understand it, contractor companies made these subject items for the Corps. Also, I am a retired manager with the U. S, Department of Agriculture.
Posted by rushinghjr (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 1:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Also, Swapmeet, you may wish to contact the Corps to get further information. They will be more than happy to assist you.
Posted by frogprincenessntz (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 1:28 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I also remember water on the mat field. After a little research, I found this:
The river has to reach 55 feet to encroach on Roth Hill land, and it has only done that five times since the late 1920s - most recently in 1997, when the river reached 56.3 feet, said City Engineer David Gardner.
In 1973, they predicted a levee break in south Concordia parish and were predicting eight feet of water. It was so serious that my insurance company paid to move my mobile home out of the state. The break did not happen.
Posted by Swapmeet (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 1:28 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Ok. I used to work security at JM Jones Lumber and I saw some pictures from 93 or so that showed the flood. I remember the upper Mississippi was horrible (Iowa, etc.). I guess it was all that water that came down here. Hope it doesn't get like that again.
Posted by shedevil (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 1:46 a.m. (Suggest removal)
55 feet of water will cover the mat field.in 97 water was up against the back levee on the mat field
Posted by gemccull (Gary McCullars) on March 22, 2008 at 2:06 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Does that mean that the Vidalia Reception Center will have water in it?
Posted by Swapmeet (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 2:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)
That would be awful mccull.
Posted by gemccull (Gary McCullars) on March 22, 2008 at 2:31 a.m. (Suggest removal)
It may not get in this time but it will be close.
Posted by pineridger (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 4:51 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The eastern side of the mat field (river bank) was supposedly brought up to a sufficient grade heighth to prevent "typical high-water flooding" .... we, the
tax and insurance payers will certainly see ... we do not
need another Corps of Engineers' issue.
Posted by bear45 (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 7:28 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I think there is another Corps of Engineers Issue in site and plain site at that.......
Posted by ViLou2True (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 7:50 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I do remember in 97 when the water was so high. it nearly topped the levees over here across from the Dodge Store on Lake Concordia outside of Vidalia. It was only a couple of feet from the top of the levee. They have a lot of Trailers/Homes built on stilts (i guess u can call them that) and they were even under water. I think I will go over there today and see what it looks like ...may even take a few photos this year.
Posted by Teach4Peace (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. (Suggest removal)
All of the flooding in Missouri and those midwestern states, snow still falling, all that water will come downhill, it has to have somewhere to go. It will get hairy on the Vidalia Riverfront, but I think they will be okay.
Posted by kpage (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 9 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Me too, ViLou. I think I'm going to check this out today. Let's see, there's Minorca to look at, then over by Bunge, and down the levee going toward Deer Park. I guess I'll just ride the levees (where I can) and see how high this water is. Goodness, I must be a recluse. I never get out. This is news to me.
I also am curious to know how the new riverfront stuff will be saved from high water. Can those drains hold up?
Posted by iamnobody (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 9:25 a.m. (Suggest removal)
i hope those who can afford it have flood insurance and those who don't have enough mental functioning to save and prepare what they can now,,put in storage,,,get sand for sand bags..copy important documents,,
Posted by bayougranny (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 9:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I would like for everyone to know that the Old Mat Field as you call it was raised some three to four feet before anything was built over there. I think a little water may come in down at the Bunge end but not on the Riverwalk its self. I walk there all the time and grant it the water is high but it's got a ways to go before it touches the riverwalk.
Posted by azlm101 (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 9:47 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The old mat field as you guys remember it does not exist. The city of vidalia raised the whole matfield about 6 feet or so. So if you were standing on the mat field in the past you wold have 6 or 7 feet of dirt on top of you. the mat field is built above the 500 year flood plain so that means the last time that land would flood would have been that long ago.
Posted by itsawounderfullife (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 9:55 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Scarry situation, I hope and pray for us and all of the folk up north, the river is something that should be respected. I think things will be ok, but it will be hairy for a couple of weeks.
Posted by LeadPaint (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 10 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The city of Vidalia will flood before the riverfront.
Posted by azlm101 (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 10:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The river crested at 56.7 in 1973.
The Vidalia riverfront area, which is not protected by a levee, is about 77 mean sea level, meaning it would take a gauge reading of 60 to cover the sidewalk, Matthews said.
Matthews is head of the CORP
Posted by itsawounderfullife (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 10:13 a.m. (Suggest removal)
How do you figure?
Posted by azlm101 (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 10:15 a.m. (Suggest removal)
if the levee were to break the riverfront will be the only land out of the water because of its height. vidalia now sits beneath the river water level thats why we always have problem with sand boils
Posted by dottie (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 10:37 a.m. (Suggest removal)
This is a scarry situation. Reminds me of waiting for
a hurricane. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Posted by sayitloud (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 11:42 a.m. (Suggest removal)
What about sandbagging? I would help volunteer to do that....does anyone know if they are doing this? We ALL need to help our neighbors out with this.
Was it in 1997 when it was so high that they had to close Silver Street because it was flooded? Anyone remember?
Posted by emp (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 11:57 a.m. (Suggest removal)
There is some really good info on flooding history and predictions if anyone is interested: http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograp...
Posted by emp (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at noon (Suggest removal)
I think the water level was up to the bottom of the levee on the mat field in 1997.
Posted by emp (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 12:10 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I also remember in 1997, the Sheriff Maxwell had inmate trustees filling sandbags to help on the levees.
Posted by shedevil (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 12:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)
i saw isle of capri filling sand bags today.they must be preparing for the worst
Posted by gemccull (Gary McCullars) on March 22, 2008 at 1:19 p.m. (Suggest removal)
At what level on the Natchez guage is it considered a 500 year flood?
Posted by azlm101 (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 1:42 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Historical Crests
(1) 58.04 ft on 02/21/1937
(2) 56.70 ft on 05/13/1973
(3) 56.60 ft on 05/04/1927
(4) 56.30 ft on 03/26/1997
(5) 55.70 ft on 05/31/1983
(6) 55.30 ft on 04/26/1922
(7) 55.20 ft on 04/29/1945
(8) 54.60 ft on 04/23/1979
(9) 54.50 ft on 06/05/1929
(10) 54.02 ft on 04/12/1975
Low Water Records
(1) -2.7 ft on 01/01/1930
(2) -1.7 ft on 02/03/1940
(3) -1.0 ft on 09/03/1936
some noted flood stages
55.0 Fort Adams Pond Road is flooded.
53.0 Some camps and houses are flooded around Fort Adams.
51.0 Water is covering the roads in old downtown area of Fort Adams. Road to Jackson point is flooded.
48.0 Carthage point road becomes impassable.
47.0 Water begins to enter the former Belwood Golf Course and Carthage Point Road area south of Natchez.
45.0 Water under some buildings around Fort Adams, Mississippi.
44.0 Some camps and most access roads flooded along Lake Mary.
43.0 Water is over Thornburg Lake Road in the area known as Anna's bottom north of Natchez. Also, Lake Mary Road is under water.
38.0 Lowlands along the river in areas not protected by levees begin to flood. Some of these areas contain oil and gas wells on both sides of the river, but are not affected until higher stages
Posted by Greenfields (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 1:47 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Does anyone know at what height the river has to be before they won't let people ride the levee?
I think its 48ft but I'm not sure.
Thanks.
Posted by supertrucker47 (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 3:31 p.m. (Suggest removal)
IM GLAD NATCHEZ SETS ON A 2000 FOOT BLUFF.
Posted by avoylles (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 4:27 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The levees wil be closed to public traffic at river stage 48.0. Please do not ride the levees sightseeing. Deputies will be issuing tickets to anyone that is not authorized to be on the levee. If you are caught tearing up the grass, riding up and down the slopes or damaging the levee in any way , you will be arested and prosecuted. Not threatening, just trying to keep everyone out of trouble.
Posted by OldGrandDad (anonymous) on March 22, 2008 at 7 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I'm glad to hear our elevation has increased by 1800 feet.
Posted by iamnobody (anonymous) on March 24, 2008 at 9:04 a.m. (Suggest removal)
hey supertrucker,,yes it is good that natchez in up on the bluff,,but you are also forgetting that when the bottom layers are soft from water seepage, then the sink holes can happen on a more regular basis,,remember the one infront of the post office???
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