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River crest goes up again
Published Friday, April 11, 2008
VIDALIA — If the most current prediction stays afloat the Mississippi River will rise to its fourth-highest recorded crest.
The National Weather Service forecast, released Thursday morning, pushed the river’s crest at the Natchez-Vidalia pass a foot higher and five days later than previously predicted to 56.5 feet on April 20.
The forecast was revised because of rainfall over the Arkansas River basin.
“There is a lot of flooding along the white river and the Arkansas River has gained quite a bit,” NWS Hydrologist Marty Pope said.
The northern parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin had the equivalent of six to seven inches of rainfall in the form of snow recently, but when the thaw begins most of that water will go into Lake Superior.
“What is going to come down the Mississippi River from that snow melt is going to be fairly insignificant this year,” Pope said.
When the river reached a height of 56.7 feet in 1973, it took approximately a month for the waters to recede to below flood stage.
“What is going to keep the river up longer is that we are still going to get a secondary crest up the river,” Pope said. “That won’t make the water rise higher, but it will leave it up longer.”
Even with the revised forecast, there is some good news, Pope said.
“We look to have at least seven days of decent weather either here or across the Ohio Valley,” he said.
Comments
Posted by fire39212 (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 12:31 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Wow....73 water was terrible......
People take caution and get out.....
we will be praying for y'all...
Posted by Krogers (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 12:53 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I've never seen it as high, incredible.
I'm so glad Vidalia has that second levee
Posted by crawgator (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 6:13 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I know this can be a scary time for some especially if you live on the river side of the levee system. As for the the city side there should be no problems other than seepage and a few sand boils. I remember the 73 flood well and how high the water was against the levee at Deer Park, but those levees have been raised a couple of feet since then. I also remember the ocassional report of idiots trying to intentionally break the levee. one even went as far as 2 sticks of TNT. We were told that if the levee were to break below town it would take a week or more for the waters to reach the city and that at it's max would be around a couple feet. Now any amount of water is bad in a home especially without flood insurance, but bon't think of the lower ninth ward in New orleans when you think flooding. The levee would need to break right in front of you for that and these levees sre not built in the same manner. I do understand that this is Mother Nature and we all know that saying, so my advice is to prepare but not to fret
Posted by redusmfan (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 7:32 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Just get out of the way of it. I know it can kill, so be careful. Do Not Get In The Water. Be Smart.
Posted by emp (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 8:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I believe it was higher than 56.7 in 1973. The records show 56.7 but I think that is a clerical error. What do y'all think?
Posted by frogprincenessntz (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 8:28 a.m. (Suggest removal)
We lived between Vidalia and Ferriday in 73. We were told that a levee on the south side of Concordia Parish was trying to fail and if it did, we would have eight feet of water by the weekend. My insurance company believed the report enough to pay to move my mobile home over into MS. It was so wet and the ground was so soggy, that Sheriff Fred Schiele loaned two dual-wheeled farm tractors to pull us out of our land onto the pavement so a truck could get us. Mother and Dad lived in Vidalia city limits, and you could step on their driveway and bubbles came up on the sides. To make matters even worse, the night before they were to move us, a tornado came through. The next morning, the electrical poles all down the highway were leaning to north over the road. Needless to say, we were happy when we had the bridge behind us. Now we are back outside of Vidalia. No mobile home, so not as easy to pick up and move. There has been a tremendous lot of work done to the levee system since then, but there is still the possibility of failure. It just makes sense to prepare ahead of time, not sit on your rear like they did in New Orleans. If you have a safe place in MS to move your important stuff to, do so. It is only work to pack it up and move it, like pictures and important papers, and when you move it back, you will have it more organized.
Posted by dixiemama (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 9:33 a.m. (Suggest removal)
(( frogprincenessntz)) I remember the tornado during the '73 high river. It happended during the middle of the night & when I ran to the kitchen to let our dog inside & the floor was covered with water, coming under the door. Half aseelp I screamed to my husband that the levee bad broke.
In '73 we had taken all pictures, important papers, etc. to my Mama's house in Natchez, but so far this year we havn't.
Could be we've heard wolf be cried so much we don't know what to believe anymore.
Posted by luzichick (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 9:44 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Even if everything goes well and the levee holds, there's still some potential damage that could occur to farmland. Seepage caused by a high water table could damage crops in the areas along the levee.
Posted by fire39212 (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 10:23 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I think you are correct emp....Or soemthing was diffrent....That's for sure...
Posted by redgirlemt (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 10:23 a.m. (Suggest removal)
i dont think people understand the ramification of the levee breaking. no matter where it breaks concordia parish is going to flood because of the fact that there is levees everywhere. its going to hold all the water in. guess the state figures its better to flood a whole parish instead of a the septic tank like new orleans. i figure one nite they will blow a levee away from everyone like on the deer park levee area to flood and release some of the pressure else where but the whole parish will flood if that happens.
Posted by luzichick (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 10:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Can you say paranoia?
Posted by Scooter (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 12:17 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Just who is they, redgirlemt?
Posted by fire39212 (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 1:10 p.m. (Suggest removal)
now redgirlemt why would they do that?? Come on now...Get real...
Posted by Modiemas (anonymous) on April 11, 2008 at 6:35 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Correct if I am wrong please, but I have always thought preventing the parishes from flooding was the reason we have the Bonne Carrie Spillway and the Morganza Spillway......
I wonder if these two waterways are open yet or is the decision to open based on just how much more the river is expected to rise......
If I am way off.........please ignore my post.........Modie
Posted by shedevil (anonymous) on April 12, 2008 at 5:03 a.m. (Suggest removal)
i heard yesterday they are expecting river gauge to be 58ft by the 3rd of may
Posted by Scooter (anonymous) on April 12, 2008 at 8:06 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The NWS forcast is for a crest at Natchez of 56.5 on the 20th of April. Please do not post false rumors.
Posted by luzichick (anonymous) on April 12, 2008 at 8:09 a.m. (Suggest removal)
And the Corps of Engineers forecast is the same. I suspect they both use the same forecast, since they're always both updated at about the same time and seem to be identical.
Posted by lrunnels (anonymous) on April 12, 2008 at 9:22 a.m.
(This comment was removed by the site staff.)
Posted by avoylles (anonymous) on April 12, 2008 at 9:24 a.m. (Suggest removal)
No, the previous NWS prediction was 55.5 on April 15. The 56.5 on April 20 prediction included the rise.
Posted by cjc3 (anonymous) on April 12, 2008 at 9:58 a.m. (Suggest removal)
The flood waters are scary and you really can't be sure what's going to happen! Mother nature can't be stopped but for greed's sake, Mayor Phillip West will not give the word to close Isle of Capri Casino. The managers and all employees are ready for the fear of lives being at stake. Without the mayors' order, the insurance will not pay! What does that say about our Mayor? I'm disgusted!!
Posted by Scooter (anonymous) on April 12, 2008 at 11:16 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Home : River Forecasts :
Ohio and Lower Mississippi River Forecast
Mississippi & Ohio River Hydrographs
000
SRUS44 KORN 121549
RVAORN
RIVER FORECAST...LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SLIDELL LA
1000AM CDT SAT APR 12 2008
*** CORRECTED GCTI2 STAGE FORECASTS D+2 ***
RIVER STAGE FORECASTS (A)BV
STATION FS 7AM 24HR ....F O R E C A S T..... (B)LO
STG CHG 0413 0414 0415 0416 0417 CREST/DATE FS
OHIO RIVER
SMITHLAND TW 40 44.8 0.0 44.7 44.6 44.3 43.8 43.3 CRESTED
PADUCAH 39 45.3 0.0 45.2 45.1 44.8 44.3 43.7 CRESTED
BROOKPORT 37 47.4 +0.1 47.4 47.3 47.0 46.6 46.0 CRESTED
GRAND CHAIN 42 53.1 +0.1 53.1 53.1 53.2 53.1 52.7 53.2 4/15A
CAIRO 40 52.2 +0.3 52.4 52.4 52.5 52.4 52.1 52.5 4/15A
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CAPE GIRARDEAU 32 35.9 +1.7 37.3 39.5 41.0 41.5 39.9 41.5 4/16A
THEBES 33 35.7 +1.4 37.0 39.1 40.4 40.9 40.8 41.0 4/16P
NEW MADRID 34 39.8 +0.1 39.9 40.1 40.3 40.5 40.4 40.5 4/16A
TIPTONVILLE 37 41.7 0.0 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.4 42.4 42.5 4/16P
CARUTHERSVILLE 32 39.2 -0.1 39.3 39.5 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.2 4/17A
MEMPHIS 34 37.3 0.0 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.7 37.8 38.0 4/20A
HELENA 44 46.7 +0.2 46.8 46.9 47.0 47.0 47.2 47.5 4/21A
ARKANSAS CITY 37 44.0 +0.3 44.4 44.7 44.9 45.0 45.0 45.0 4/16A
GREENVILLE 48 56.1 +0.3 56.3 56.7 57.1 57.3 57.5 57.5 4/17A
VICKSBURG 43 49.3 +0.2 49.6 49.8 50.1 50.3 50.4 50.5 4/18A
NATCHEZ 48 55.1 +0.2 55.3 55.5 55.7 56.0 56.2 56.5 4/20A
RED RIVER LNDG 48 58.4 +0.2 58.6 58.8 59.0 59.2 59.3 59.5 4/21A
BATON ROUGE 35 41.3 +0.4 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.8 41.8 42.0 4/21A
DONALDSONVILLE 27 30.6 +0.1 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 4/18A
RESERVE 22 23.5 -0.1 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 CRESTING
NEW ORLEANS /17/ 16.6 -0.1 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 CRESTING
/ /LEVEES PROTECT CITY OF NEW ORLEANS TO 20 FT STAGE.
END LMRFC
Posted by sparky018 (anonymous) on April 12, 2008 at 2:22 p.m. (Suggest removal)
All I have to say is! WATCH OUT! Great Mississippi Flood of 1927! Anyone heard of it? Well, It's almost time for another 100 year flood!
Posted by shedevil (anonymous) on April 12, 2008 at 6:08 p.m. (Suggest removal)
i think we are beginning to see the affects of global warming
Posted by southern_bell (anonymous) on April 13, 2008 at 12:58 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I think this is like something from a horror movie, everyone just waiting for the worse and when it happenens then we scream and run. Instead of taking precaution now.
But what is so funny about all this is WHY would anyone with common sense build big fancy buildings on that side of the levee ? It's like they are asking for trouble. That is why we put levees up behind our homes to keep water out of them, so I'm going to laugh at the ignorance of the Mayor when everything is flooded. But it won't be funny when OUR TAX MONEY is reparing it all, the MAYOR shoud pay out of his pocket.
I just hope and pray the water don't get any higher!!!!
Posted by Scooter (anonymous) on April 13, 2008 at 9 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Not global warming, just the great mass of hot air coming off of this blog.
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