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photo by Marcus Frazier
Water encroaches on the few feet of space left between the river’s edge and the wall at the rear of the Vidalia Conference and Convention Center Thursday afternoon.
Upriver rains may change crest
Published Friday, April 18, 2008
VIDALIA — Two National Weather Service weather models indicate heavy precipitation to areas upriver could prolong or even raise the swollen Mississippi River’s crest.
“Beginning Wednesday, we may develop heavy rainfall over eastern Arkansas and Western Kentucky,” National Weather Service Hydrologist Marty Pope said. “We will have to keep an eye over the upper Arkansas River basin.”
But the wet weather expected to come through the area today will likely contribute to the rising Mississippi River’s already record height, but it is not likely to cause a significant increase, according to experts.
“The first storm may be more related to the upper parts of the river, which would just keep the (river) system full for a long time,” National Weather Service Hydrologist Marty Pope said. “An inch to an inch and a half of rain could add a couple of tenths of an inch to the river.”
Assuming the crest does not significantly change, it will likely stay at that level for two to four days, and then will begin incrementally decreasing, picking up speed as the river’s level drops, Pope said.
Meanwhile, the levee board is continuing its flood fight along the river.
“I look for the sand boils to continue to get worse, but I don’t think we’ll have any other problems,” Fifth District Levee Board President Reynold Minsky said.
A sand boil is when water pressure from the river forces its way through the ground to the opposite side of a levee. Sandbags are placed in a well around the boil until the water pressure equalizes and stops displacing soil.
The sand boils are located in East Carroll, Madison, Tensas and northern Concordia Parish, Minsky said.
Though there is a visible sandbagging presence in the area, residents should not be concerned, Minsky said.
“There are no problems with the levees, and we don’t need anybody to be concerned,” he said. “The levees are in good shape.”
In Vidalia, the southern end of Front Street has been closed to traffic due to water back-flowing through the drains.
The northern end of the street — where the Vidalia Conference and Convention Center, the Riverpark Medical Center and Comfort Suites are located — is still open, Vidalia Mayor Hyram Copeland said.
The Vidalia riverwalk is still open, and the city will keep it open as long as they can, but it will be patrolled to ensure safety, Copeland said.
Water has risen to within feet of the riverwalk, and waves and wake action from river traffic can actually cause the water to lap against the back porch on the Vidalia Conference and Convention Center.
Because the water is so close to the riverwalk, Copeland said many people might put themselves in hazardous situations because the high water is a change from the normal situation.
“You have got these youngsters who don’t realize how dangerous the high water is,” Copeland said. “It looks like you can just step off there and wade, but you can’t. That’s a swift current.”
The river, which is expected to crest at 57 feet above gauge zero Monday, currently stands at approximately 56.6 feet.
But the water is actually much deeper than that.
Gauge zero, from which the river’s height is measured, is set at 17.5 feet above sea level, which means that if the river is at 57 feet above gauge zero, it is actually 74.5 feet deep.
River forecast models for the Natchez-Vidalia pass are released by the National Weather Service’s office in Slidell, and are generated from an algorithm that considers current river height, weather models and other factors.
Comments
Posted by Choctaw (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 1:47 a.m. (Suggest removal)
This is an extremely serious situation folks! I hope the levee system surrounding Vidalia holds strong! There are a lot of neighborhoods that will have homes flooded if the levee breaks,,,,,a lot of people will have to look for places to stay until they could go back home! A lot of destroyed property and possessions! Thats a scary thought I know!
God forbid this happens,,,,and I'm not trying to scare anyone! But realistically,,,it CAN happen! And has happened in the past!
Posted by JDR (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 2:44 a.m. (Suggest removal)
haha
Posted by ntzmom (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 2:59 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I sure dont find Choctaw's comment funny JDR.
It could happen, it has happened and I hope everyone is getting prepared for the worst. Better safe than sorry.
Posted by fire39212 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 5:35 a.m. (Suggest removal)
That isn't funny at all JDR ..you must have a twisted way of thinking if you think it is..Look at the children and families that would be out of a home if this was to happen it would be devastating.... Choctaw is right though it has happened before....I would hope if there was a risk they would tell..
Posted by gemccull (Gary McCullars) on April 18, 2008 at 5:46 a.m. (Suggest removal)
"Gauge zero, from which the river’s height is measured, is set at 17.5 feet above sea level, which means that if the river is at 57 feet above gauge zero, it is actually 74.5 feet deep."
Is this a true statement? The current river level is 74.5 feet above sea level. The reading has nothing to do with the actual depth of the river at Natchez. The river may be 100 +/- feet deep in the main channel.
Posted by shedevil (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 5:56 a.m. (Suggest removal)
as i said days ago...58 ft by may third
Posted by retiredcoastie (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 7:50 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I was stationed at the Coast Guard Depot in 1973 and I guarantee you there is nothing funny about high water and a lot of things can happen at this river stage and none of them are good things.
Posted by bubbawows (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 7:57 a.m. (Suggest removal)
your right gemccull the river is well over 100 feet deep in places, i've been fishing in the river when the stage at natchez was less than 20 and there were spots that were close to 80 or 90 feet deep
Posted by picture_music101 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 8:29 a.m. (Suggest removal)
ok im worried bout this drain issue! Ok so what if the water pushes its way all through vidalia and out of the drains thats where are main flood will start...dont you think! if so they need to start blocking drains off mighty quick!
Posted by itsawounderfullife (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 8:56 a.m. (Suggest removal)
excuse me FLOODING for all of you that like to hound someone for type o's
Posted by itsawounderfullife (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 8:56 a.m. (Suggest removal)
JDR Get a life! Obviously you dont have one if you cant feel for the families that have been and could be affected by the fooding.
Posted by sayitloud (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 9:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)
If you don't reach out and help those in need JDR, they will never help when YOU are in need.
I'm just sayin
Posted by wolf1327 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 9:22 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I think everyone needs to calm down about this whole flood situation. If the river is going to flood its going to flood there is nothing any of us can do about it. As far as the residents of vidalia are concerned the worst I think we need to worry about is property and possesions being lost. As long as everyone keeps an eye on the river levels and takes the right precautions if the river does flood I don't think there will be any lose of life.
Posted by redusmfan (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 9:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I said it would be 57.8 on the flood stage on April 10, at 6:33 am. I just had a strange feeling it was going higher than the first prediction. Just be careful and keep your eyes open as the river continues to rise. It is a great idea to keep vigilant watch in times like these. There should be many people watching every inch of the levee around Vidalia every hour. I know they have a system in place, but every family should have an eye open to secure their safety.
And don't get in the water unnecessarily, unless you just want to die. That river is relentless and will kill your butt and never slow down. It is dangerous and should not be taken lightly.
Posted by NtzMom55 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 10:44 a.m. (Suggest removal)
JDR, you need to move to Haiti or Iraq.
Wolf1327, you must be a child with no financial resposibilities. If everything we own is lost in flooding, including our livelihood, most cannot just move on and start over at the flick of a switch. Many in our area are worried and have a ligitimate reason to be. At times like this, all we can do is support each other and pray for the best.
Posted by montereyjack (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 10:57 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I thought the Mayor said a few weeks back...impossible....
when are you people going to learn you cant pay any attention to him and his politics..
Posted by wolf1327 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 10:59 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Excuse me Ntzmom55 but you don't know me or my financial situation but what I was trying to say is that regardless of everyones financial responsibilities your first priority should be making sure no one is hurt or killed if it does flood. There is nothing that any of us can do to stop the river from flooding if it is going to. All of the material possesions we may lose can be replaced but a human life can not be replaced. On another note I am originally from Chalmette which was devistated by Katrina and I know exactly what it is like to go through a flood and loose everything you own and hold dear to your heart. I know what its like to have to start from scratch so please don't try to act as if I am some nieve little child who has no understanding of the world. I know all to well that many people may loose their buisness but if these buisnesses have flood insurance that will help a great deal with helping them get back on their feet. So please don't try to make me feel like I have no understanding as to the extent of the situation.
Posted by bennylava2 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 11 a.m. (Suggest removal)
yeah im a little concerned....i am from vidalia and i have never seen the river so high...in baton rouge now but there are still sand boils popping up around areas that have never seen them before...a neighborhood called river bend right around the brightside river road area has an inch of water in the streets from underground sand boils....im sure the levees will hold but it is sort of scary....just be prepared for anything..
Posted by natchez1 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 11:12 a.m. (Suggest removal)
If the levee was to break above Vidalia the area that would be flooded is huge. I saw a presentation by the Corps of Engineers many years ago with computer models of the "Worst Case Scenario" If the levee broke unexpectedly lots of people would die and the damage caused would be immense. I helped out in New Orleans - cleaning up the damage after a flood is not fun or pretty. My house in New Orleans only had 3 feet of water - some had 10-12 feet, when you lose everything you have it is so much harder than you can imagine.
Posted by wolf1327 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 11:20 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Natchez1 im just wondering what part of new orleans was your house in.
Posted by natchez1 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 11:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I am not from NOLA - but I rented a house for weekend getaways. The house was near Tulane.
Posted by destiny (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 12:02 p.m. (Suggest removal)
May God be with all of you in the area that stands a chance of flooding. Stay alert for all danger for sometimes when Mother Nature gets ready to vent her strength for what ever reason, human strength cannot stand against her. The land maps of the world changes daily due to Mother Nature. She is a powerful force. JDR, SHAME ON YOU. I was hoping that people like you would find something better to do with your time. We do not need your silly quirks at this time.
Posted by progressntz81 (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 1:40 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The "Gauge Zero" is not the bottom of the river. A simple look at the NOAA website will show you that the record low water mark is -2.7' from gauge zero. The COE maintains a 9' shipping channel at all river stages, so in 1930 when the stage was -2.7' the river was still 9' deep if not significantly deeper.
Therefore the fact the Democrat is trying to give you is that at stage 57' the river is 74.5' above sea level, not 74.5' deep.
It is a shame the Democrat cannot get the simple facts straight about one of our most important geographic feature.
Posted by ghost (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 1:58 p.m. (Suggest removal)
i mentioned 3 weeks ago it would be 60+ ft. my sources seem to be correct
Posted by Negotiator (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 4:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I have seen 120 feet on my depth finder near the bridge at below flood level readings.
There is no telling how deep it is in spots right now.
We're talking major river.... awesome.
Stay safe folks.
Prayers sent.
Posted by emp (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 6:11 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I'm concerned about wash-out under Natchez along with the flooding in Louisiana. I remember a sink-hole in the road close to the bridge several years ago. Seems like that was in the late nineties. Could that happen again?
Posted by emp (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 6:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Ghost, I hope you are wrong about the 60+ ft. But I'm afraid you are right.
Posted by southernbelle (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 6:51 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Ive heard for many years that the Mississippi River has areas of undermining as far back as St Mary's Basilica . Is it true ? And I'm trying really hard not to worry about another potential earthquake on the Mississippi . Maybe we need to take a good look at our lives and see what we can do to improve it. You think ?
Posted by Negotiator (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 7:05 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Here's a link to an accurate daily update and forecast.
It looks like 57' will be the crest sometime around around Tuesday.
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograp...
Posted by sayitloud (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 7:23 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Amen southernbelle!
I take it you are talking about the earthquake that they had at 4:30 this morning in Illinois? I saw a while ago on the Fox News that it collapsed a building as far away as St Louis! Makes you pray we don't get an earthquake here or feel the aftershocks here during this incredible flood.
Posted by rushinghjr (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 11:26 p.m. (Suggest removal)
What's the latest?
Posted by emp (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 11:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)
56.67 at 9:00pm.
Posted by sammohon (anonymous) on April 18, 2008 at 11:36 p.m. (Suggest removal)
According to the building codes, we are far enough away from the nearest fault zone, i.e. the New Madrid fault, that we are considered to be in a 0 risk area which is defined as being on a 0 to 5 scale.
It means that the effects of an earthquake in the fault should be absorbed by the rock and earth that separate us to the extent we wouldn't feel it. As with all things man made the estimate could be wrong though.
Hurricane and flood are far more threatening to us, so relax a little on the earthquake issue.
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