After Sen. Barbara Blackmon’s apparent campaign meltdown due to a regrettable campaign tactic surrounding an abortion issue, it seems the race has moved from who is going to win to whether or not Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck is going to blow her shot at reelection.

Conventional wisdom &045; which of course is a dangerous thing &045; seems to be leaning toward Tuck in the lead. Just two weeks ago, however, this was not the case. At that time, it seemed the one-time Democrat turned Republican was in the horse race of her life.

Blackmon represented everything a true Mississippi Democrat could want. She’s educated, successful, politically savvy and represents absolutely no threat to switch parties. Mix that with her trial lawyer background (and trial lawyer husband), and Democrats are assured that their honeypot lobbyists are safe from further tort reform measures.

Blackmon was as credible of a threat as Tuck could have faced.

Was.

Then Blackmon went out on that stupid tangent about whether or not Tuck had had an abortion. Given, Blackmon was going to lose on that issue. Mississippi is largely conservative by nature, and when it comes to abortion, pro-life is the majority view. That put Blackmon in the minority, undoubtedly, since she has yet to say that she is pro-life, only that she has chosen life with her children.

But why not just lose that issue? Why not let it go on by you? After all, as has been said in this and other columns, the abortion issue is a nothing-issue in state politics. It’s just a good issue to stir the pot. Blackmon was in the driver’s seat, and she could have passed the issue right on by.

Instead, she veered off the road and is now trying to get herself unstuck from the mud and slop she threw around.

That puts Tuck back in the driver’s seat of this race. Despite the fact she has angered many Democrats with her switch, she is still the favored candidate. It is not inconceivable that many Democrats will just sit the lieutenant governor’s race out.

But we still have several weeks left in the race, and anything can happen. Look at how fast Blackmon went south. Tuck could do the same thing. She’s proven she can reach her foot to her mouth as well.

First, she brought the state flag issue into play, and it didn’t go over well. How could it? Her opponent is black. Making the state flag an issue was just dumb, especially when media outlets across the state reminded Tuck that she never came out publicly for or against the flag back when the real debate over it was raging.

Last week, Tuck showed her flexibility again, almost swallowing her foot over campaign finance reports. Here is a woman who early in the campaign had to admit that during her last electorate rodeo she was riding on a bull financed in part with a $500,000 loaned backed by the state’s leading trial lawyer. That was ugly within itself.

But Tuck took it one step further last week when she pointed out that Blackmon’s campaign finance report was a who’s who of the state’s trial lobby. Blackmon’s camp spent little time reminding voters about the Scruggs’ loan, then offered up names from Tuck’s campaign finance report that included four large donations from trial lawyers.

Tuck might want to stick to where she is the most defensible: economic development, tort reform and performance-based budgeting without tax increases.

Blackmon has zero legs to stand on when it comes to tort reform. Furthermore, Blackmon has little ability to convince any right-thinking person that she &045; a trial lawyer and wife of an even bigger trial lawyer, both who have earned quite a living off the payoffs from non-economic damage suits &045; can go to a major industry and convince them that Mississippi is the business climate in which they want to set up shop.

I can hear it now: &8220;Come on in. The state will build the plant. You can run it. And eventually my husband and I will sue you for everything you’ve got.&8221;

Yep. Tuck has the edge on this one.

Sam R. Hall

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