Russia-Britain Relations Reach Low Point
Published 12:00 am Monday, December 26, 2005
LONDON – In the early months of his presidency, Vladimir Putin met British leader Tony Blair for a beer at a cozy Moscow restaurant. The setting and the leaders’ tentative smiles had the air of a promising date that might bloom into something big for Britain and Russia.
But the relationship never really took off, and now the countries are locked in a furious dispute _ each complaining of disrespect and misunderstanding by the other. Whether the aggrieved sides can swallow their pride to seek compromise is unclear, and analysts suggest that a long spell of sulking and sniping may be in store.
Britain and Russia were an odd couple at best _ one a Western nation with a long democratic tradition, the other already showing discomfort with democracy after only a decade and deeply suspicious of the West.
By late 2002, the bloom had faded: Putin and Blair staged an intimate walk for the cameras through the Russian president’s country estate, then went to a news conference where they disagreed on tougher measures against Iraq.
Once the Iraq war began, Russia denounced it and disagreements accelerated.
Russia resented Britain’s granting asylum to Putin opponent Boris Berezovsky and Chechen rebel envoy Akhmed Zakayev. Britain and other Western countries gave encouraging words to the “color revolutions” in Georgia and Ukraine that Russia saw as stalking horses for undermining Putin’s regime. Russia accused British diplomats of spying and of funding Kremlin-critical organizations.
In November came the killing of former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko in London, who was poisoned with the radioactive isotope polonium-210. Britain sent investigators to Russia in the case, but they were not permitted to question suspects.
After Britain named Russian businessman Andrei Lugovoi as its chief suspect and demanded his extradition, Russia refused, saying its constitution prevents such a move _ and chided Britain for not extraditing Berezovsky and Zakayev.
Then Blair, whose attempts to cultivate Russia had been seen by many as subservient, left office. The government of new Prime Minister Gordon Brown ordered the expulsion of four Russian diplomats as retaliation for Russia’s extradition refusal and Russia angrily threatened a tough response.
On both sides, “the degree of feeling offense is too strong to seek reconciliation,” said Natalia Leshchenko, an analyst at the Global Insight think-tank. She suggested that both sides will spend the near future venting their grievances as strongly as possible before either would make a move toward the other.
For now, top officials of both sides indicate that the other would have to make the first move. Russian Ambassador Yuri Fedotov said resolution largely depends on “Britain’s political will.” Brown’s spokesman said Russia’s response “is a matter for the Russian government.”
Although Russia has threatened a strong response, it has not taken action yet _ an unusual role reversal for a country inclined to be assertive or even bullying. Leshchenko said the apparent strategy “is to show that the British government is being hysterical.”
But some Russian analysts suggest the hesitation may only be the calm before the storm.
“In this case it would not be enough to take symmetrical actions, (just) to expel four British diplomats,” Gleb Pavolvsky, an analyst seen as close to the Kremlin, told the Russian news agency Interfax.
What those actions might be is unclear, but Russia has shown a suspected inclination to punish other countries it quarrels with, without tying the measures directly to the disputes.
As relations with Georgia deteriorated, Russia blocked the import of Georgian wine, a key export commodity. After a dispute with Estonia, Russia unexpectedly canceled some passenger train service to the Baltic country and restricted truck traffic on a key bridge.
Berezovsky has proposed the dispute could resolved by having both him and Lugovoi tried in third countries. But Britain rejects the idea and Russia would be unlikely to accept a move that would be a tacit expression of distrust in its own court system.
As with quarreling couples who stay together because it would be too expensive to split up, money may be the most compelling reason for Russia and Britain to eventually make up. British companies have some $12 billion invested in Russia and Britain is a prime customer for Russian oil, gas and precious metals.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, should be concerned that Britain could try to impede Russia’s long-desired entry into the World Trade Organization, said analyst Andranik Migranian of the Moscow State Institute for International Relations.
“In the Kremlin, they realize it’s important to make money,” Leshchenko said.
But Britain on Wednesday said it sees only one way out of the conflict.
“The end game is Russian cooperation,” Britain’s Europe Minister Jim Murphy said. “And the extradition of one individual.”
EDITOR’S NOTE _ Jim Heintz, a Moscow-based correspondent on assignment in London, has covered Russian politics since 1999.
A service of the Associated Press(AP)