NATCHEZ — The Mississippi River at Natchez is expected to rise 6.6 feet in the next two weeks, placing it just below flood level early in the spring rise season.

The river was expected to stand at 39.9 this morning, and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters have predicted it will rise to near 46.5 feet by March 27.

The river has already risen 3.3 feet since Wednesday, meaning — if predictions are true — the waters could rise 10 feet in 16 days.

Flood stage at Natchez is 48 feet on the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers gauge.

NWS Hydrologist Marty Pope said the rise is being driven by higher-than-usual rainfall in the Ohio River Valley, which empties into the Lower Mississippi River.

“They have had 250 percent of the normal rainfall, and that includes some snow they have had, which is melting or melting shortly,” he said. “It also includes the rainfall they are expecting over the weekend — it looks like two to three inches up the entire lower Mississippi River below Cairo, (Ill.), and two to three inches going straight up the Ohio (River) itself.”

Snowfall in the Upper Mississippi River Valley has had very little effect on the rise thus far, Pope said, and most of the snow in the Ohio River Valley has already melted.

“There was a lot (of snow) in Ohio, but most of that has already melted,” he said.

“I am really glad to see that is not a big factor. That is what killed us in 2011, all that snow melting at the same time as we got 20 inches of rainfall.”

The Mississippi River at Natchez rose to a previously unrecorded 61.9 feet in May 2011.

Having the river near flood stage as the area enters April means there’s a lot of uncertainty about what the river could do later in the spring, Pope said.

“Being this far out, there is a lot that can happen before the crest goes down, but the trends aren’t showing (rainfall) being heavier beyond this time period,” he said.

“The river will be high going into April, and we know the chances are you can get some big showers into April, which could get it above flood stage.”

Adams County Emergency Management Director Robert Bradford said his office would continue to monitor the situation, but at this point wanted people to simply be aware and remain safe.

“When the river goes up, the smaller creeks might rise, too,” he said. “Don’t try to go through flood waters.”

While the waters won’t impact most of the area below flood stage, some of the area’s low-lying lands will be affected.

Thornburg Lake Road in Anna’s Bottom in Northern Adams County starts to take on water at 43 feet, while at 44 feet areas around Lake Mary are inundated and at 45 feet some buildings in the Wilkinson County community of Fort Adams are impacted by the floodwaters. The Concordia Parish areas of Deer Park and Minorca are likewise affected by the high water prior to flood stage.

The former Belwood Country Club near the Natchez-Adams County Port takes on water at 47 feet.