Lt. Gov Amy Tuck has more job security than probably any other state elected official. It doesn’t matter if she runs as a Democrat, switches to be a Republican or completely jumps ship and runs as an independent.

Amy Tuck will be reelected.

She stands alone on issues such as redistricting, angering her party to the point that some would call for her head on a political platter. Then, in her next amazing feat, she stands chummy with House Speaker Tim Ford, D-New Albany, as they stubbornly insist that Mississippi will make a remarkable economic recovery and lead the nation with a 4.3 percent growth rate.

What’s amazing, is that she has more possibilities than any other state-wide elected official.

Staying put is a good thing

Her easiest victory would be as a Democrat seeking reelection as lieutenant governor. That also seems the most likely. Besides, who is going to knock her off?

Democratic U.S. Rep. Ronnie Shows, who has been rumored to take a shot at Tuck if he doesn’t get a favorable district, will probably stay put. His running for her office doesn’t make sense.

It would be 100 percent vindictiveness, and that’s not a strong platform. Furthermore, he would look weak. He, and Republican U.S. Rep. Chip Pickering, have little choice but to run for the combined seat we all expect or else they look like political cowards.

Public Service Commissioner Nielsen Cochran has said he would consider a run at her, but his decision would come primarily out of necessity if his current district is “drawn out” during redistricting. The main thing he would have going for him is family ties.

Switching and still staying put

But, if she wanted to do so, Tuck could switch parties and find an new home among Republicans, who would give her much love and support.

Don’t mistake this love for a genuine liking of the woman they fought so hard against in 1999, but more a liking of the Senate seats she would bring.

Nonetheless, Tuck would be backed by the GOP in order to ensure they gained control of an office they otherwise have no real shot at winning, not even with Cochran.

A run at the big house

Then there’s that other scenario. The one where she trades in near-solid job security and power for a run at the Mansion.

Unlike seeking reelection, Tuck could probably only run as a Democrat and be successful. The GOP have already given their unspoken support to Haley Barbour, who looks more like a candidate every day.

But for Tuck to run as a Democrat, she would have to knock off Musgrove in the primaries. As vulnerable as he is and as strong as she is, such a scenario is not inconceivable.

Still, Tuck knows the value of her party when it comes down to it, and an ugly primary in Mississippi generally translates to sure defeat in the general election. Reference the GOP primary in 1998 when Shows eventually defeated Delbert Hoseman for the fourth congressional seat.

Then again, Tuck is the exception to that rule. She made it out of an ugly primary in 1999 and claimed the general election.

So much for conventional wisdom.

Sam R. Hall

is managing editor of The Democrat. He can be reached at (601) 445-3552 or by e-mail to

sam.hall@natchezdemocrat.com

.