March Madness has arrived, and if you’re still looking for that last perfect pick to win your office pool, you have come to the right place.

See, there are plenty of experts out there who have watched so much basketball over the last few months their eyes are nearly bulging out; but I haven’t done any of that.

No sir, I’ve watched a grand total of maybe two hours of college basketball this year.

Fortunately for me, though, I have something the experts don’t: a virtually limitless supply of useless historical data on the tournament in my head.

Over the past several years, with the exception of last year, I’ve done pretty well in my picks without the hours of watching games and scouring scouting reports.

So here is my usual line of thinking as I enter each tournament:

– Who do I know is championship material?

This year, several teams fit that bill. Florida and Kansas seem to be the two strongest teams in the country, but North Carolina, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA, Texas A&M and maybe even Texas all have the tools to win it all. Once you’ve identified those teams, you have a good idea who you’re going to advance a long way in your bracket.

– Who do I not like?

This can come down to a number of factors, but when I see Wisconsin and Memphis as two seeds, both coming from weaker conferences, I think they are ripe for an upset. I have UNLV and Nevada, respectively, taking them out in Round 2.

– What does history tell me?

There are numerous trends in the NCAA Tournament, some highly-publicized, others not as much. We all know about the 5-12 upset. This year, I’m not so sure we’re going to get one. The Butler-Old Dominion game just seems too obvious, and the obvious one never seems to come through. Arkansas could beat USC, and Tennessee could fall victim to Long Beach State.

History has also told us that a team always makes the Final Four that gave no real indication heading into the tournament it would go that far. Three of the Final Four participants last season (Florida, LSU and George Mason) were on very few radars heading in, and Michigan State, Georgia Tech, Indiana, North Carolina and Wisconsin have all made similar runs this decade.

I always try to find that team, but never do. This year my pick is Virginia. Why, you ask? I’m not entirely sure, but they have very strong guard play, which is a plus in this tournament, and I feel they can beat Ohio State, and upsets on the bottom half of their bracket should give them a favorable match-up in the Elite Eight, should they make it that far.

4Who are the potential bracket busters?

UNLV and Nevada have the potential to seriously alter the Midwest and South brackets, respectively. Winthrop, Virginia Commonwealth and Louisville are also low seeds I could see making runs in the tournament.

– Who will win it all?

This is typically the first question I answer. There are plenty of candidates this year, as I stated above. But, ultimately, Florida and Kansas are the two deepest, most talented teams. They should meet in the National Semifinals in Atlanta, and I see Kansas coming away with the victory much like in the regular season.

Of course, in my 10 years of NCAA Tournament prognostication, I’ve correctly predicted the national champion twice.

Tim Cottrell is sports editor of The Natchez Democrat. He can be reached by phone at 601-445-3632 or by e-mail at tim.cottrell@natchezdemocrat.com.