NATCHEZ — Can the Miss-Lou market support three casinos?

Don’t bet on it, researcher Denise von Herrmann told Rotary Club members Wednesday.

A professor at University of Southern Mississippi, von Herrmann has spent years researching the state’s casino markets, she said.

Most of the dollars spent at Natchez’s sole casino, Isle of Capri, come from local or area residents, she said. Von Herrmann was Isle CEO Jack Sours’ guest speaker.

Two companies — Lane Company and Emerald Star — have plans to locate in the shadow of the city’s bluffs.

That would mean trouble — another casino would destabilize the market, von Herrmann said.

The growth rate for the current casino is too small to signal certain success for additional casinos, she said.

“If the growth rate reaches 10 percent for more than a year, it might be time to update or time for a new casino,” she said.

That description doesn’t fit Natchez’s market, she said.

“The downside is it will hurt whatever property is already here, and it will cannibalize the customers and employees from the existing casino,” she said. “Revenues at both will fail to meet expectations, and layoffs will begin.”

The two prospective casino companies have previously expressed plans to draw tourists and visitors from farther away, to become a destination.

Without some major changes, that won’t work, von Herrmann said. The airport is too small to bring in the needed numbers, and the city doesn’t have the advantage of an interstate highway.

Not only that, but on their way to Natchez, visitors will likely pass through gambling areas on their way here, she said. With Vicksburg, Biloxi and Shreveport on the way, there might not be much point in driving to Natchez.

“Geography is kind of working against (Natchez),” von Herrmann said.